Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Predicting Violence?




Ring up the CIA and see what they have planned.  That gets you to about 70%.

Everything else is superficial charting, which economists proved long ago doesn't work.  It will miss the worst when you needed it the most (e.g., banking collapses of 1990 and 2007).  Prediction schemes that work the best are also their own best undoing, by breeding complacency.  However, I don't imagine it working well enough to get off the ground in this case.

And what were you planning to do with this information, anyway???  Possibly something to set off self-fufilling prophecy of violence?  Possibly delaying something useful until it's too late?

More and more I read technology is becoming Orwellian.  Like the automated "fact checking" I saw at IEEE last month.

Perhaps better that violence NOT be predictable, all the better to keep elites quaking in their guccis and not whipping as hard.

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