Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Approaches to Impending Doom

 1) A friend has the idea the solution is to be found in personal behavior.  Everyone must vastly downscale their carbon footprint, reproductivity, resource use, everything.

Of course, this is inconceivable.  To give up everything on a vast scale, even before it gets taken away anyway soon enough, just isn't typical in human nature.  So if some give up, others will just use more.

Most don't have the resources to change much of the way they do things.  Most people can't afford EV's, for example, and that's unlikely to change soon.

But this friend doesn't see the answer in EV's or anything like that.  He sees the answer in people living without cars, using bicycles, like he does.

2)  Some see the answer in expanding carbon free energy soon.  One friend believes few autos other than EV's will be produced by 2030.  Thanks to incentives, solar panels will be ubiquitous.  And ingenious solutions will be worked out for mass and localized energy storage that don't rely on rare minerals.  No fundamental change to "democracy" as we know it is needed.  Political pressure to keep making more progress is needed, and help for those who need it, but it will happen if we work on it.

I don't share his optimism in those regards.  (He nevertheless thinks we'll continue to track worst case projections for greenhouse gasses, thanks to methane and other things).  I think EV's will only slowly penetrate the market, as they have, and we'll be lucky to see 50% of cars being sold being EV by 2030.  Among cars being driven, that will still be less than 20%, not enough to "slow the trajectory" significantly.

3) I'm one who thought even the US Democrat's proposed Green New Deal was insufficient change perhaps even by a factor of ten or so, and preferred to explain the scaling up as "similar in scale to the US mobilization for WWII, but continuing for 3 decades or more."  The powers-that-be are never going to step up to the required degree of change required for a robust renewable energy conversion, because their power and wealth depends on business as usual.  Oil companies are not going to write off the remaining oil they can pump from the ground voluntarily.  Eco-socialism or Eco-communism is required.  I'm an Eco-communist of the high technology but reduced consumption and population variety.  I believe we must abandon global hegemonism as the highest priority, and divert 90% of US military spending to energy and transportation conversion.  We are not going to have sufficient resources otherwise.  I concede it is hard to imagine this happening, as much as any of the above.  

Socialists are more likely than Communists to be sucked into the importance of the phony global issues outside the USA promoted by american hegemonists, such as the alleged Uyghur genocide, or the need to support Ukraine's alleged need and desire for military alliance self determination.  But unless we give up on such world policemanship, even if it were morally righteous (which it is not, it is based on hegemonic lies), we will not have the resources for the needed energy conversion.  Brains and Time are limited no matter how much money you print for them.




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