Sunday, August 28, 2022
No Means No
Friday, August 26, 2022
Stalin loving and hating
The incredible pro-Stalin pro-USSR special issue of Life magazine in 1943.
US Mass Media switched to hating Stalin in 1945.
Tuesday, August 23, 2022
Approaches to Impending Doom
1) A friend has the idea the solution is to be found in personal behavior. Everyone must vastly downscale their carbon footprint, reproductivity, resource use, everything.
Of course, this is inconceivable. To give up everything on a vast scale, even before it gets taken away anyway soon enough, just isn't typical in human nature. So if some give up, others will just use more.
Most don't have the resources to change much of the way they do things. Most people can't afford EV's, for example, and that's unlikely to change soon.
But this friend doesn't see the answer in EV's or anything like that. He sees the answer in people living without cars, using bicycles, like he does.
2) Some see the answer in expanding carbon free energy soon. One friend believes few autos other than EV's will be produced by 2030. Thanks to incentives, solar panels will be ubiquitous. And ingenious solutions will be worked out for mass and localized energy storage that don't rely on rare minerals. No fundamental change to "democracy" as we know it is needed. Political pressure to keep making more progress is needed, and help for those who need it, but it will happen if we work on it.
I don't share his optimism in those regards. (He nevertheless thinks we'll continue to track worst case projections for greenhouse gasses, thanks to methane and other things). I think EV's will only slowly penetrate the market, as they have, and we'll be lucky to see 50% of cars being sold being EV by 2030. Among cars being driven, that will still be less than 20%, not enough to "slow the trajectory" significantly.
3) I'm one who thought even the US Democrat's proposed Green New Deal was insufficient change perhaps even by a factor of ten or so, and preferred to explain the scaling up as "similar in scale to the US mobilization for WWII, but continuing for 3 decades or more." The powers-that-be are never going to step up to the required degree of change required for a robust renewable energy conversion, because their power and wealth depends on business as usual. Oil companies are not going to write off the remaining oil they can pump from the ground voluntarily. Eco-socialism or Eco-communism is required. I'm an Eco-communist of the high technology but reduced consumption and population variety. I believe we must abandon global hegemonism as the highest priority, and divert 90% of US military spending to energy and transportation conversion. We are not going to have sufficient resources otherwise. I concede it is hard to imagine this happening, as much as any of the above.
Socialists are more likely than Communists to be sucked into the importance of the phony global issues outside the USA promoted by american hegemonists, such as the alleged Uyghur genocide, or the need to support Ukraine's alleged need and desire for military alliance self determination. But unless we give up on such world policemanship, even if it were morally righteous (which it is not, it is based on hegemonic lies), we will not have the resources for the needed energy conversion. Brains and Time are limited no matter how much money you print for them.
Survival
Our survival only exists in the long tail risk.
It's not impossible, it's merely highly unlikely, especially given what we've seen of human history, society, and behavior. Our history is repeated amplification of environmental crises to collapse. It's just never happened on a global level before.
The powers-that-be see environmental course correction a huge loss. Thus no matter how hard they are pressured, they will underfund and never complete serious solutions, instead maintaining their power through current arrangements . This is the pattern.
The people rarely have much choice. Survive by participation in the master's economy, or perish, but perish either way first in collapse.
Monday, August 22, 2022
Climate Realism at PNAS and Elsewhere
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is the pre-eminent peer reviewed scientific journal in the USA. And after ten months of review, they have recently published an article by leading scientists that says we must look closer at worst case climate scenarios instead of just the best case scenarios, analyze the how risks spread and interact, and analyze compound hazards where one hazard multiplies another. It says there is ample evidence we could have catastrophic climate change and enter "endgames" at even modest levels of warming.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Climate Scientist Bill McGuire distinguishes"Climate Appeasers" and "Climate Doomers (or Doomists)" among Climate Scientists.
He argues the Doomists are correct in that we cannot ignore feedbacks and tipping points as the Appeasers do because we don't know enough about them. He lists a number of key "Doomist" papers. He notes how outcomes have tracked worst case projections in the past, rather than hoped for improvements. Therefore we must follow the Precautionary Principle and be prepared for the worst.
Peterson 2024
My Presidential Agenda includes:
1) No Foreign Entanglements. Ending the Unipolar Hegemonic Neocolonial Imperial state. This includes:
a) No foreign wars, coups, sanctions, or influence operations. No funding for "military aid" to foreign countries, militias or "pro-Democracy" groups.
b) No NATO or similar "regional" security commitments. No foreign bases.
c) Submission to UN and UN Security Council in matters of global security beyond the borders of the USA.
d) 90% reduction in US military spending with a jobs guarantee for all. Replacement spending and rehiring will be towards the development of 100% renewable energy as soon as humanly possible. Swords to Ploughshares!
e) No participation in global neoliberalism. No IMF, NAFTA, TPP, WTO, or similar non-democratic institutions.
f) Recognition of all established governments, reciprocal diplomacy with all, duty free trade with all except in cases like Dumping and Infant Industry Protection in public owned or governed industries. No commercial giveaways like the Chips act.
g) Non-recognition of currently US backed fake leaders like Guido.
h) Truth commission confronting both the ugly era of US global imperialism and hegemonism and covert operations (since 1898) and the ugly era of Native American Genocide 1619 (or earlier) to the Present. Truth to be respected in all government funded documents and teaching.
i) Abolition of covert operation administrations like CIA and NED, to be replaced by open source intelligence gathering and sharing. No government censorship or influence in media except direct government messaging and balance requirements for mass media.
2) Welfare State. Government owned and operated Social Security system for retirement and disability benefits with no cuts to benefits. National healthcare as a right with no charges for accessing healthcare. No charges means no charges. Immediate abolition of "health insurance industry" because there are no charges left to insure. Eventual full nationalization of all healthcare industry, administrators, doctors, and other staff becoming government employees.
Restoration and fufillment of AFDC income for dependent mothers. It should be free of work requirements and other strings. It should be sufficient.
Generally guaranteed housing and food for the needy.
Guaranteed living wage work for all who can work. Seriously working make the best use of all human and natural resources.
100% free public education. Cancellation of all existing education debt. Limitations on new debt for private education.
3) Energy and Transportation Conversion. Conversion to 100% renewable energy by 2050. 50% by 2035. This includes:
a) Vast research, planning, and democratic initiatives. Re-planning cities to need less transportation. Planning new buildings and retrofits.
b) Renewable Energy Standards for electricity.
c) Fully refunded Carbon Tax with phase-in.
d) Development of a free national DC grid for energy sharing.
e) Development of renewable energy generation and storage facilities to be government owned.
f) Both EV's and greatly improved mass transportation systems.
g) Mixed use development wherever possible to reduce transportation needs.
h) Planning to move inland as sea level rises. Phasing out insurance where new building should not occur.
i) Planned replacement of air travel with new and improved fully electric rail, including elevated crossings throughout the country as in Europe.
j) Promotion of home work and similar measures to reduce transportation needs.
4) Human Rights
a) Healthcare, Jobs, Housing, Education, and Food all guaranteed to citizens and non-citizens alike.
b) All industries and workplaces to have mandated Closed Shop Unions determined by employee vote.
c) No prosecution of honest journalists and whistleblowers.* Abolition of Espionage Act.
d) Universal Sick Leave and Vacation Leave at 6 weeks minimum per year.
e) No War on Drugs. No penalties for Personal Drug Use. Release of all non-violent drug offenders. Complete legalization of Marijuana use, growing, and distribution for adults. All drugs to be legal for and by prescription (including Meth, Heroin, LSD and other psychedelics.) Free voluntary and anonymous drug treatment.
f) Promotion of non-exclusive clubs for social gathering and meeting, exercise, dancing, and use of intoxicants (regardless of purchase) on a tax-free basis. Taxation of bars and exclusive religions. (Non-exclusive means that entities that do not discriminate on the basis of ethnicity or belief, but may discriminate on the basis of disruption or crimes).
g) Elimination of prohibition of sex activities for sale. Sex work to be regulated for safety.
h) Free Abortion (as healthcare) at any time during Pregnancy. Free contraceptives.
i) Promote 1-child policy by retirement incentives. Plan for population shrinkage.
j) No persecution of immigrants. No deportation or family separation. No forced expulsions.
Illegal immigrants are in second tier regarding retirement benefits, but otherwise the same as full citizens including access to healthcare and education.
Sunday, August 21, 2022
Movie Services
I cancelled cable because of what I perceived as completely anti-left POV, shows with "Centrist" blowhards like Bill Maher and Rachel Maddow I would not want to see any of my money going towards.
I'm cancelling Netflix, which I just signed up for days ago to see "Don't Look Up," a movie not available elsewhere. You could say that's a movie made by a leftist, though it's a quirky movie.
But it seems their archives (older movies that haven't been expired) are either notoriously violent or right wing. Perhaps that's just the taste of most American viewers. Lefter directors are lesser represented.
Paying for each individual movie is the only way to get past such restricted paywalls that attempt to control you. Mostly--not everything is available even through online stores. Otherwise, I'm afraid I'm going to get sucked into movies I wouldn't watch otherwise with the selection on Netflex, and skip those I want to see most.
I still try to buy disks first.
I suppose there could be a similar problem for music with words...that's a problem I haven't kept up with because I mostly listen to music without words. I've been "happy" with two streaming services, Tidal and Qobuz for a few years now.
But there's no getting away from politics and religion in movies.
Saturday, August 20, 2022
Zaparozhye Bombing
I completely agree with what Scott Ritter says here. If I were President, I'd appoint him National Security Advisor (no senate confirmation needed).
https://rumble.com/v1gguzh-crimea-attacked-zaparozhye-nuclear-terrorism-russia-has-won.html
Friday, August 19, 2022
"Value" and Wealth
Logically, it seems it would be pretty hard to have an idea of what "Wealth" really is without understanding what "Value" is, since "Wealth" is something like accumulated value.
Adam Smith had a very radical and progressive idea for his time (and actually still) to define Value (and hence wealth) as productively used labor. Marx followed Adam Smith in this (Smith, Ricardo, and Marx are sometimes considered the most well known "Classical" economists), and Marx invented the term "Labor Power" to refer to productively used labor.
One problem with a theory like this is that it makes all "labor power" a thing, regardless of whether that labor power is employed in destructive ways, which it most often is.
Neoclassical economists, the dominant modern school, and along with Keynesians and others, abandoned the radical Labor Theory of Value and replaced it with a different radical but equally (if not more) flawed idea, that value is determined subjectively by how much people want things. This is the central concept (so central it's hardly ever talked about) in all of modern Economics, and it enabled modern economics to be a highly mathematical system. If you want a technical term, it's "Hedonic Value." It's an assumption rather than a "theory" as such. Using this and a bunch of other terribly flawed ideas, Neoclassical Economics is then able to portray Capitalism as something like the best of all possible worlds, and anything that deviates from "Market" principles as wrongheaded at best and likely disasterous, when in many cases the reverse is true.
There are huge normative considerations in making such definitions of value. No system of economics can be truly free of asserted "human values." Any such definition may elevate the importance of one or another group of people. You might think the "labor theory of value" has a pro-worker orientation, and it certainly does in the hands of Marx. Smith tends to see things more from the vantage of employers and the "Nation" as a whole. Meanwhile "Hedonic Value" would seem to impart a pro-Consumer orientation, but probably more like a pro-Corporate orientation, because Corporations have the power both the make things desirable (wanted), and the power to make things selectively available to those who pay for them.
I'll just quickly list some of the problems with Hedonic Value. First it barely distinguishes between "wants" and "needs" and therefore tends to overlook the truly needy and elevate the whims of the rich. Secondly it overlooks the fact that desires are not entirely, or in most cases very much, endogenous. Desires are for the most part manufactured by social processes (typically Corporations, sometimes Governments), so desires are themselves social products. So ultimately Hedonic value is circular, with the end point NOT being maximum satisfaction, but rather maximum profit and maximum empire. Satisfaction as such may itself fall down a hole of infinite regress, as ordinary people find their lives more precarious, worked to death and hardly enough time to turn on the TV or Internet to get more Desires, while the world itself is regressing into hell.
Though economic elites may be fine with this kind of theory, primarily because of profit maximization, it is in fact a violation of the most deeply principles that are truly conservative, likc conservation.
Which gets to the biggest problem of all. It ignores the stocks and flows of the natural world itself. The natural world is reduced to sources and sinks that merely serve the satisfaction of desire maximization of profit in the here and now, the future of those sources and sinks (and their potential future uses to society) be damned.
A more conservationist view would human production as a process of deforming and degrading natural resources so that they have no future. Thus, human production leads to lesser value and wealth, not greater. In using natural resources in any unsustainable fashion (which is most of what we do with them) we are borrowing if not stealing from the future, theirs and ours (presuming we have a future, which is at best very uncertain now, largely thanks to human production).
Artificial Gut Feeling
I had my doubts about the article at first. I am a long time critic of "AI." But so I don't appear uninformed, let me start with the fact I took a college extension course in "AI" in 1983. I personally knew the professor from a previous job application. At the time, AI was mostly conceived of as Rule Based Systems, and we built some of those. Later, in 1986 I was an officer of the Association for Computing Machinery local chapter (in San Diego) when they presented an engaging seminar on Neural Networks, which have monopolized mind share about AI ever since. I believe that is fundamentally wrong. Until you can explain your thoughts, you don't actually have "Intelligence." What you have is something like "Gut Feeling" or "Instinct." I won't believe what any computer AI does until it can explain itself to me. And you are going to need "rules" for that (ordinary computer programs are built with rules, usually called algorithms and programs) not just neural networks. I imagine the best AI will combine the approaches, and perhaps others we haven't thought of yet, but rules really have to have the upper hand, or what we have are Artificial Despots, which is what we might have anyway, as the author describes in his way.
But hopium and hyperbole have propelled Artificial Gut Feeling as the present solution to all our problems, which it is not. It's just another bump in the road we're taking over the cliff. At best.
Thursday, August 18, 2022
The Humanity we know is Authoritarianism
Having adopted a second male stray cat, I've been learning about the endless selfish competition among male cats. Male cats find hierarchies nearly impossible. Each must fight for his own feline domination of every inch of territory. They are compelled to do this, stronger than any other drive except those associated with extreme hunger or near death illness. Though during evening hours anyway, the daytime is a mostly-respected sleeping truce. (This is not to say I haven't noticed other secondary tendencies, like a peculiar avuncularity in my older cat that the new cat doesn't seem to appreciate much. Though I wonder if this might be my anthropomorphism.)
Cats always look like they are "smiling" but that is merely the shape of their jaw. They are incapable of generating the myriad facial expressions used in hierarchical relationships, including smiling. Though they can express respect/submission by backing off, they cannot express "I am your tool" in an operational non-loving way. (They can express "love" but not "I will do this for you, my liege.")
Thus there are no cat armies, cat parliaments, cat corporations, etc. Cat society is a anarchy that seems to be guided by fairly strict rules they all intuit. It's obviously successful and has endured for tens of millions of years. It's eminently suitable...for cats. It's not the way canines or humans or many other species have evolved. For us, hierarchy is omnipresent and therefore likely necessary for creating the kinds of environments we work well in. We are not physically adapted to self-sufficient solitary hunting like cats do. We rely on social products without which we cannot function. Our self-invention is a social product. We know ourselves from using what we have learned from others.
In fact hierarchy seems to be requirement for "civilization" and even pre-civilized societies, though the pre-civilized societies operated on much smaller scales, tribes in which everyone knows and respects everyone else (mostly).
Now I give some respect to left anarchists and the like in many ways. But this notion that we can create a non-hierarchical human society is just ludicrous, in my view. We cannot work that way and never have.
The question is better changed to how we can make human hierarchies work for everyone, and better for all.
Q: Has human society ever been non-Authoritarian? A: No, at least not since the dawn of Agriculture, when societies were too large for everyone to know everyone else.
Q: How can we create a good society without harmful Authoritarianism? A: Yes, that is the question.
Nowadays, and at least technically, we could conceivably build True Democracy. In True Democracy the intermediate "Representative" layer (which generally represents power more than the people) is done away with, and everyone directly votes on Everything.
Now there are reasons to believe this wouldn't necessarily work any better anyway.
A) First of all, human opinions are themselves highly malleable social products, created from social experiences ("learning") and endlessly reshaped by peer pressure and mass media. The control of the mass media and things like religious doctrines are of huge importance here. If those things represent elite interests, and it is virtually certain they will, human opinions will be virtually controlled by the elite, though probably highly sectarian as well and there is no reason for the elite not to be sectarian.
B) Not everyone is capable of rendering useful judgement on everything. People don't have the expertise, time, or ability to acquire useful understanding. Specialists are useful for precisely this reason. In Representative Democracy, professional representatives can acquire useful understanding from the "best" that society has to offer. (The problem being that "the best" is generally always going to represent some sect of the elite.)
C) Not everyone participates in everything. It is more sensible that people who themselves are involved with or affected by some social production should have pre-eminent ability to govern it. This is the premise of a (now mostly forgotten, but interesting) strand of social design called Participatory Democracy. The problem that turns away many is that things become so complicated. And nowadays those who are affected by social production byproducts such as CO2 and CH3 is actually Everyone anyway.
D) If you even try to give everyone a chance to speak their mind on everything, as Anarchists do, you'll basically never stop arguing. If you ever do stop arguing, it's only because most have simply gotten to tired to keep up with the discussion anymore. Generally it seems the way to "win" in Anarchists debates is to be indefatigable. Anarchism is Rule by the People who Won't Shut Up.
Socialists, Communists, Liberals, and others often say that the cure for "Democracy" is real (or better) Democracy. But in practice, it more often seems that "increasing" the level of Democracy doesn't always work well. Referendums often have insane results. (Though right now, living in Texas, I wish we had Referendums to overrule the corrupt right wing state government on abortion, drug, and gun laws, among others. IIRC referendums either enabled or forced drug law reform in many states. A vast majority of Texans would favor drug law reform, but it doesn't align with the sect of ruling elite that has grabbed power more successfully.)
One essential problem is that while there are imbalances in power, true Democracy (no matter how implements) is impossible. Those with power will always find some way to manipulate people's minds and/or the results to their advantage, at the expense of everyone else.
Marx had a mystifying term Dictatorship of the Proletariat which most Socialists and even Communists explain really means an extension of effective democracy to every matter relevant to production and control--those things now controlled by Capital, that is by the powerful and wealthy elite (and therefore to their unique advantage).
But this Dictatorship image returns in the minds of the many who denounce Stalin, Mao, and others.
The truth rarely understood by Americans is that much like the CPC in China today, the Soviet regime was a Democracy in it's own terms, and perhaps even a better democracy than most or all in the west.
Certainly today, under "Dictator" Xi (and curiously also Russia under "Dictator" Putin, though no longer a Communist Dictator) the popularity of the government and most everything is nearly 90%, unlike the 30% typically find in the west.
One aspect of this apparent improvement on the "more liberal" Western Democracy is that are long-lasting Presidents, who aren't merely temporary tools of the oligarchy.
Long lasting leaders with expansive powers and relying ultimately on non-specific popular support seem to necessary to overcome the strong hierarchical tendency towards Rule By The Elites. The essential thing is these powerful central leaders must rely purely on popular support, not divided or controlled by elite sects.
Possibly the single best US President, FDR, also operated like that, serving a unique 4 terms. Obviously this was antithetical to most elite interests, so that possibility was quickly abolished.
Not to say we've had any Presidents since who would have been worthy of more than 2 terms, or even 1 term, except perhaps for JFK assuming his latter day conversion to anti-hegemonism was real.
Which brings up another thing. It doesn't seem that US Presidents can be very much like FDR anyway. FDR was a fluke (and not merely because he was an elite himself...nearly all great leaders have been elites).
That may in some measure get back to the way Presidents are selected. It is not by a truly popular vote but by an inherently sectarian one, which therefore maps back to the sectarian elites.
One improvement therefore would be Popular election of the US president, and having the Vice President be the next highest popular vote winner.
Saturday, August 13, 2022
"Doomism"
I continue to enjoy the writings of Eliot Jacobson, including this wonderful essay.
I think he's far and away closer to the truth than anti-doomers like Michael Mann.
While the efforts in the latest Inflation Reduction Act to combat global heating are a step in the right direction, they are little more than a step in a long journey, which should have begun 60 years ago to avoid almost unimaginable catastrophes ahead.
And in fact just fixing carbon isn't going to allow us to evade collapse. We need degrowth in population, land use, water use, everything. Not only do we need degrowth, in fact it's going to get done to us, as we are beaten back from formerly valuable farmland, cities, everything.
Anyone that tells you that degrowth in population or anything else will simply take care of itself--without catastrophes and total collapse--is selling hopium.
The best we could possibly do would be to slow the destruction sufficient to allow at least some degree of civilization to survive somewhere.
But if that surviving fragment is just some of the most egoistical humans, they probably won't survive either.
But the truth is, we can't be 100% certain about anything (though, the certainty that the IRA is insufficient does approach 100% to a very large number of decimal places).
So the real question is not what to do with the absolute certainty of doom, but what do do with the almost complete probability of doom.
1) Since complete doom might be avoided, do what can be done, without too much difficulty, to help either lessen the probability of doom or at least delay it somewhat. Therefore for example, one should express more support than opposition to the IRA, while it's under consideration, and praise the efforts that went into pushing it over the line and trying to make it better. (At least under the set of assumptions/analyses I have that suggest the bad points won't be as bad as possible and would probably happen anyway, whereas the good points were really up for grabs otherwise now or lost for quite awhile. And, why not give those experts who say it's about 80% of the change we need at least a chance to see.)
Going on a hunger strike, lighting fire to oneself, etc, are examples of doing too much. We're pretty unlikely to escape annihilation anyway, so why take it to that point?
OTOH, if there is a credible mass strike, for example, it would be good to be in it, if one is not in a particularly precarious position.. Or even a small demonstration, just not something that presents a huge burden to a lot of relatively ordinary working people--that would be going too far. A violation of the kindness principle. But directed to corporations or hegemonic governments, kindness is inapplicable.
What's needed to even attempt to ameliorate doom somehow is virtually a mass change in nearly everything, from global governance to personal "choices." I don't think the needed change is possible under bourgeois democracy, even with "socialist" orientations (if that's even possible). It would be much bigger than that. It would be more like Eco-Communism with a benevolent government operating all the energy and transportation facilities in a deliberate fashion to plow present income into expansion of renewable energy and transportation systems and all the other sustainable changes needed, without depriving anyone of needs now or later.
Is Eco-Communism liberal? Probably more like CPC version of Democracy, which doesn't satisfy western preconceptions of how democracy is supposed to work, but might generally work better anyway, not to say it might need some changes for America. And, from the start, it's probably going to be a lot more Revolutionary than Mao. It might be noted that China itself is building coal plants, probably not exactly the model humanity needs, perhaps even in China. What we need right now is the kind of eco Communism that isn't going to try to make the situation better in the long run at the expense of carbon emissions today merely for the sake of popularity to hold on to power. It would have to be more principled, to stick up for reduced human footprint, possibly with the likes of Samuri warriors. It would have to stick to those principles, and not get sucked into dazzling people with techno utopia. And to be more principled like this, China would have to go back to the 1 child policy (which has been inflated to 3 children) or, even better yet, my 0.5 child policy. Perhaps it's even impossible to imagine such change without a Stalin like figure behind it all. And maybe even he wasn't even tough and paranoid enough. And since Stalin himself relied on industrial growth to dazzell Soviet citizens with techno utopia (and win a world war), we need an anti-Stalin Stalin, or perhaps an anti-Stalin Anti-Stalin, or perhaps all three. It would be that difficult and more. It would not be intellectual anarchists in the park arguing all night long forever to reach consensus. (Though there probably are worse options than that...such as the one we have.)
Meanwhile and otherwise, it's inconceivable that "incentives" for the corporate crooks who run society could somehow turn it into doing the right thing. Corporate crocks need to be retired as quickly as possible. Of course many will be on their side, making the whole vision seem pretty much beyond imagining anyway. But if you wanted to imagine such a thing, a liberal version would require not only junking Citizens United, but all the Court decisions overruling keeping money out of politics. Elections should be nearly 100% public funded, with support demonstrated through small ($1 ish) contributions of the people involved in the election only. And that's just to get to the point of legally regulating corporations (rather than fox guarding the henhouse), and it's just a start, for sure principles of power and wealth will apply so long as they can, and nevertheless the regulations need to be formulated to "force" the impossible corporations into doing the right thing even when it means writing off all their existing wealth.
So any such vision of the revolutionary change seems pretty much impossible, but none more so than the idea that the "self-correcting" market and bourgeois democracy will do much to stall let alone stop the oncoming catastr
If you're in a good position to do so, putting up solar panels might not be a bad thing to do, even well aware that not enough people will do so to save civilization, and with the collapse of everything quite possibly nobody will be living anywhere around your house anyway.
2) Kindness, service, and generosity, as Jacobson promotes, are wonderful. Be one of those people who would actually deserve to survive the collapse of everyone, not the one who is going to try to be one who does by crushing everyone else's opportunities.
Being a good person encourages others to be good. That is the best way to increase the probability that the people who survive, if there are any, are good people too.
But don't make huge efforts to survive either, one because you probably won't anyway, and two because that's promoting the same egoism that got us into this situation in the first place.
That's the fundamental point: we must be good people, in the sense of serving others as well as ourselves, as they would choose to be served, not in the sense of grabbing everything for ourselves, our descendants, or our projects.
Only if we are like that, will there be people like that, and therefore a possibility for good people to survive. And then the best to them.
Monday, August 8, 2022
Pelosi's Visit and WW3
The US initiated the War in Ukraine by backing Neonazis in the Maidan Revolution in 2014. And that is what most of the people in the world think (including especially China, Russia, India, South America, Africa).
14,000 had died from Kiev shelling the Donbas between 2014-2022, and then a new round of intense shelling of Donbas began on or before February 22, two days before the Russian invasion amidst plans widely announced by Kiev in 2021 to retake the Donbas and Crimea. Russia justified their operations on the same doctrine (Right to Protect) ethnic Russians that was used by NATO in Serbia. IMO, the Russians had truer and better justification, and basically no alternative that had not already been tried many times since 2014 including diplomacy and agreements which the West refused to force Ukraine to honor (probably following US orders anyway). Under threat from Neonazis, the Ukrainian parliament never passed the provisions required by the Minsk II agreement.
Even the far less justified US/NATO invasions of Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan did not result in global sanctions against US/NATO. It may not work that way going forward, btw. US has possibly shot down it's own currency as global standard by seizing the assets of so many countries now Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, etc.
But anyway, the sanctions seem not to have stopped or slowed Russia one wit, and possibly have already damaged the US and Europe more with far more to come soon without modification because Europe will freeze to death without Russian gas. AND, my original point, is that it has also destroyed the short-to-medium term energy conversion everywhere, since many of the materials and processes are in Russia and China and their allies. Not to mention many of the intermediate states (wrongly perhaps, but anyway) reliant on natural gas. Natural gas is needed to fill in the gaps in renewable energy production because it can be turned on fast. Eventually we should have that need filled by batteries, but we are not close to that now, and Europe is more down that path and reliant on gas energy.
Thanks in part from restraint from US military high command not matched by the White House, State Department and CIA, WW3 has not yet begun in Ukraine. But it is a proxy war between US/NATO and Russia, with the situation twisted from the way it was in Syria which was also a proxy war between US/NATO and Russia, that time intermediated by US and allied supported jihadis instead of US and allied supported Neonazis.
I believe Pelosi's visit was strongly encouraged by US oligarchs who increasingly see their "investments" in the East under threat, and wanted to see some "action" by the Biden Administration which is looking "weak" to many. Pelosi herself is one of those oligarchs. But it was clearly a provocation, and it seems it has not started WW3 yet, but we shouldn't be cutting these things so close. The geopolitical result, as in Ukraine, has more exposed US weakness than strength, which is not good for maintaining US hegemony (but the projecting weakness thing is fine by me...I often think that's the best strategy...my cat uses it all the time...).
If anything, it has driven more countries to decide to side with China than the reverse. And that means siding with Russia too.
When the history of WW3 is written, it may well be dated back to the Maidan Coup of 2014, or the Pelosi visit, etc.
Immediate surrender of global dominance and hegemony would be the best move forward for the US and the world.
Since the attitudes of most westerners are brilliantly shaped by their argumentative but western intelligence controlled major media organizations, this can be presumed not to be possible until complete social breakdown makes that pipeline break.
If necessary change requires complete social breakdown, we must hope to interrupt that breakdown to the Communist program and not the Fascist one. But that doesn't look easy.
But our previous "Fascist" Trump was unable to control his own foreign policy administration. That's show how far away we are from the ultimately required breakdown that divergence from being a globally hegemonic "superpower" may ultimately require.
It's not easy to imagine. But probably the story is that the suffering will increase, with many false attempts in stopping it otherwise.
Where have we seen this before? Global Heating!
The bottom line is humanity has not solved it's ways of determining how to run things well enough to continue being humanity.