The Conspiracy

Where are the conspiracy theories, you probably weren't asking yourself.

Well, here's a good start (below).

Curiously, there were two military pandemic "simulations" in the months leading up to the Wuhan outbreak, code named "Event 201" and "Crimson Contagion."

One included a novel Coronavirus.

These exercise simulations go way back.  This time if not every time before, it was determined that the US lacked sufficient ventilators to deal with peak infection.  These simulations virtually modeled what we are seeing around the globe today: social distancing, semi lockdowns, etc.  And strangely 1 million people went "missing."  Dissidents?

Fort Detrick was closed by CDC last summer for safety violations, then opened in November as a result of Pentagon lobbying.  Immediately after being reopened, the local newspaper reported two containment breaches.

Detrick was also at the center of the 2001 weaponized Anthrax attacks that infected 23 and killed 5.  Ever stonewalled, the FBI gave up the investigation in 2010 and many findings were classified.

Just prior to those Anthrax attacks, a simulation had been done involving an Anthrax-like agent, codenamed "Dark Winter."  People involved in that exercise 19 years ago were also involved in the simulations last year.

https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/all-roads-lead-dark-winter/

Self Doubt

During March 2020 I was obsessed more than usual over the possibility I might be wrong, and that this wrongness might lead others to take risks with COVID-19 more than they should have.  This was true both during emails to friends and posts to my Blogger account.

In many cases, after long mental deliberations, I took those risks of being wrong anyway.  My blog doesn't seem to get a lot of readers, let alone enough respect for people to change their ways because of it.  Nobody turns to this blog for medical advice, the purpose is to foster deeper thought.  I hope to bring up points which get lost in normal discourse, but may lead somewhere useful if explored deeper (not just by me, but by others taking them further).

Then I've been torn by the concern that maybe I should take down earlier articles that didn't emphasize the risks enough.

In fact, my earliest articles on COVID-19 might very well be wrong.  But I can't take them down for another reason: I still hope they are right!  And countervaling many panic-driving media accounts that lead people to the meme "We're All Gonna Die!" instead of "We can minimize this catastrophe by working together in different ways."

I think my position has now shifted pretty much in line with MoonOfAlabama, who I was criticizing earlier for shifting his position.

I've noticed this, and decided it was worthy of comment, but not for serious soul searching of the kind "maybe I shouldn't be blogging at all."  At least not yet.

The funny thing was, I was among the first of my friends calling for staying away from large gatherings.  From late February until mid-march.  Then my friends went way past me in fear, it has seemed, largely driven by mass media accounts which naturally focus on individual horrifying stories that seem to contradict statistical evidence (such as, old people are more vulnerable).  Stories focus on young and healthy people who have died, contradicting the mass of other evidence that continues to show older and sicker people being more at risk.

One of my ideas for a long time has been: exposure is not just a "yes/no."  Exposure is a quantity, and probability AND severity of infection are a function of that QUANTITY.