Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Gain of Function Research

 I am 100% in favor of the sentiment expressed by long time leading science reporter Nicholas Wade when he says:

From the hindsight of 2021, one can say that the value of gain-of-function studies in preventing the SARS2 epidemic was zero. The risk was catastrophic, if indeed the SARS2 virus was generated in a gain-of-function experiment.

I agree with b of MoonOfAlabama where he points out the newest 'Blame China' now occurring in US media, and how this is following the general pattern for manufacturing consent for war with China.  And this.

But where the blame rests is a question separate from whether it was man-made or not.

Even if the virus had been released from Wuhan Institute of Virology, 300 meters from the meat market most often fingered as the natural connection point, it would not mean that the Chinese were entirely responsible.  It is well known that the Chinese were doing contract research for universities in the USA, who had been pursuing GoF experiments for some time and decided to outsource some of this work to China.  What could go wrong?

It could also have been spread by US soldiers and other guests attending the World Military Games in Wuhan in 2019.  The US team had it's worst showing ever, placing 38th.   There were many reports of US team members being sick.  Also it appears that the best were not sent.

And there are both 'accidental release' and 'deliberate contagion' theories.  In addition to sending sick soldiers (who themselves might only have contracted the virus accidentally, from a release from the notorious Fort Detrick) as one possible plan, there could simply have been some kind of leaky package sent.

With almost any kind of accidental release scenario, the Chinese would only be partially culpable.  The blame should also be shared with the US universities and authorities which had authorized, funded, and outsourced this risky research in the first place.

With a 'deliberate contagion' theory, it would be almost certain that the US that was responsible, because the virus was planted in China in such a way it could be blamed on China.

In general I either completely oppose or greatly disparage research that could be dual use.   As well as (theoretically) leading to better strategies for combating natural disease, GoF research could be used to create racially targeted bioweapons.  In 1999, the Project for a New American Century recommended this kind of development for fighting Russia and China.

In the case of virological GoF research, I completely oppose it.  IMO it diverges too much from First Do No Harm.


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