Monday, August 22, 2022

Climate Realism at PNAS and Elsewhere

 The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is the pre-eminent peer reviewed scientific journal in the USA.  And after ten months of review, they have recently published an article by leading scientists that says we must look closer at worst case climate scenarios instead of just the best case scenarios, analyze the how risks spread and interact, and analyze compound hazards where one hazard multiplies another.  It says there is ample evidence we could have catastrophic climate change and enter "endgames" at even modest levels of warming.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

Climate Scientist Bill McGuire distinguishes"Climate Appeasers" and "Climate Doomers (or Doomists)" among Climate Scientists.

He argues the Doomists are correct in that we cannot ignore feedbacks and tipping points as the Appeasers do because we don't know enough about them.  He lists a number of key "Doomist" papers.  He notes how outcomes have tracked worst case projections in the past, rather than hoped for improvements.  Therefore we must follow the Precautionary Principle and be prepared for the worst.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/climate-emergency-doomer-appeaser-precautionary-principle

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