Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Uncle Joe

Reading DeLong this morning (he rails against US sanctions against China "we are shooting ourselves in the foot") and then lovingly quoting from Timothy Snyder reminds me of how close I am to Delong on some things, and far away on others.  But the main thing of interest was his continued view that Growth was what made incredible progress since 1970 possible, and Growth is still needed in the future.  He means economic growth. 

My view is that growth is what has propelled us to the edge of a precipice and more growth will push us over.

His view is that we need markets (though one with externalities fully priced) for the emergent solutions which will save us.

Here is where I think we have to have an alternative model.  Much as economists have a fairy tale notion of markets (such things most often don't exist in the way economists model them) we need to have a simplified notion of what might work.  Without Growth (which is doomed to fail).

So, I propose "Uncle Joe."  Uncle Joe is the ultimate benevolent despot, who has the same kinds of far reaching abilities (to see the future, etc) that economists model's start with presuming everyone has.

Uncle Joe seeks nothing for himself, pure communism for those in his domain (from each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs), and fairness for everyone else.

Uncle Joe in this idea simulation rules not by force, but by universal assent.  People believe what Uncle Joe says, so they fall in line with what he says to do.  Uncle Joe wastes nothing on self-preservation since it's not necessary.

So imagine different scenarios.

Suppose the best minds conclude what I believe, that a dramatic reduction in population is necessary to meet environmental needs.

No capitalist system can deal with this except through pushing population (or whatever) to the limit, then having at best a Mayan-style collapse.

What does Uncle Joe do???

Uncle Joe reallocates the slots in the society away from things useless for a majority elderly economy towards one, such as more slots for elderly care.  People who would have become teachers for the youth become nurses for the elderly instead.  Not that teachers aren't still needed (and Uncle Joe provides both free education and free healthcare among other things) but the allocation is different.

Everyone is paid pretty much the same thing, so there wouldn't be any need to resist from that perspective.

The costs of some things where people can optionally indulge more may get higher.  And guaranteed things may get lower, such as 14 years education instead of 16 years for all.  But people understand these adjustments need to be made.



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